Donald Trump nomination raises fears of US climate rollback

New Delhi: Donald Trump’s presidential nomination has sparked concerns about US backtracking on its climate commitments, with experts warning of major setbacks to global climate action.
In 2017, Trump had announced US withdrawal from the 2015 Paris Agreement, but the four-year exit process meant the withdrawal never materialised as he lost his re-election bid. His campaign has now indicated plans to withdraw again if he wins, with reports suggesting he may even exit the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
The US, responsible for 20% of historical CO2 emissions between 1850-2022, has per capita emissions of 18 tCO2e compared to the global average of 4.7 tCO2e. Currently, China leads global emissions followed by the US, India and the EU. Any policy reversal by the US could derail efforts to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, with the UN already warning of 3.1°C warming.
To be sure, the Biden administration’s climate finance contributions remained inadequate – just $17.5 million at COP28 compared to UAE and Germany’s $100 million each – it made significant domestic commitments through the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act focusing on clean energy production.
The US has mostly taken a hard line at various fora, pushing emerging economies to become contributors of finance.
The US has not suggested any quantum for the New Collective Quantified Goal on Climate Finance (NCQG) to be set from $100 billion for the post-2025 period and suggested that contributions should be voluntary. At its simplest, NCQG involves setting a new financial target to support developing countries in their climate actions post-2025. This target is meant to build on the floor of $100 billion a year, set in 2009 (a funding target the developed world met only in 2022).
Still, the Biden administration at least made some strong domestic commitments.
In 2022, it signed the Inflation Reduction Act, marking the most significant action Congress has taken on clean energy. The focus is on investing in domestic clean energy production. It is not clear how IRA will be impacted now.
“Trump winning is a disaster from the climate perspective. He is perhaps among the few climate sceptics remaining. His victory is a huge loss in terms of US leadership on climate action. Biden was dramatically different as under him US pledged to cut emissions by 50% by 2030,” said Sunita Narain, director general, Centre for Science and Environment.
She added that while Biden was “not good” for international climate negotiations especially on finance, Trump “could make it worse.”
Trump has already pledged to boost fossil fuel production. “I will end the devastating inflation crisis immediately, bring down interest rates and lower the cost of energy. We will drill, baby, drill,” he said in July.
Other experts too warned of far-reaching consequences.
“The possible new imminent departure of the US from the Paris Agreement puts a favourable agreement on climate financing in suspense,” said Diego Pacheco, spokesperson for the Like-Minded Developing Countries on Climate Change, a grouping of developing countries which includes India.
“A cut down in public spending for climate action, or even termination of the inflation reduction act that propelled low-carbon technologies development and adoption in the US can be expected. The US’s pledge of $3 billion to the Green Climate Fund may also be reneged,” said Labanya Jena, a sustainable finance specialist.
“Trump’s victory is a profound blow to global climate justice and an alarming escalation of climate risk for the world’s most vulnerable communities,” said Harjeet Singh, Climate Activist and Global Engagement director for the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative.
Some experts believe market forces may still drive decarbonisation. “The US election results do not change the fact that India and the US will continue to be key strategic partners. With Donald Trump in power, India can count on continued oil and gas supply to ensure its developmental needs since the US is a net exporter of fuels now,” said Arunabha Ghosh, CEO of the Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW).
“Between 2017 and 2024, the US became the fifth-largest liquified natural gas and crude oil supplier to India. Currently, India exports 90% of its solar modules to the US. Over the next four years, India will need to be prepared and strategically nimble to deepen green trade, co-develop clean tech supply chains, and accelerate its energy transition,” Ghosh added.
The development comes ahead of next week’s climate talks at Baku (COP 29), with Singh noting that “this news makes the already challenging path to consensus even steeper and more uncertain.”
“The EU and US have a partnership which is based on common goals of security and opportunity for all. Climate action must be seen in that context as a matter of security …both Europe and America have suffered in recent months and years devastating impacts of climate change. We need to protect our citizens from climate risks while working to keep them to minimum,” the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen said in a statement.