US election: Latinos hit back by showing up

A heady mix of barbecued meat, horse poo, and cattle welcomes Latino voters as they walk between the metal fencing and into the arena at Rancho Ochoa.
Some of those making their way into the Mexican rodeo in southwest Phoenix are there purely for the action: the bull riding, roping, the big band wearing sequined suits under the fading desert sun.
But with just three days to go until the election, most are there to show their support for presidential hopeful Kamala Harris, and local Senate hopeful Reuben Gallego.
If elected, the Mexican-born Arizonan will be the first Latino senator to represent the state. And when this crowd talks, Gallego’s victory sounds like a done deal.
While the modest crowd waits for Gallego to make an appearance (he’s late, but no-one seems to mind), the show continues. 
Kids with bows in their long hair hang off the railing as a black horse prances in time to the music. Middle-aged men, holding a beer in one hand, sway their hips.
Noel Soto leans against the barrier of the rodeo arena, watching the action. The circular concrete wall is covered in Harris and Gallego campaign material: ‘La Presidenta’ the Harris signs read – they’re not mucking around.
Soto immigrated from Mexico to Arizona in 2010. The softly spoken American, who apologises for his perfect English, is voting for Harris, “because I don’t like racists”.
About two-and-a-half hours south, the border wall looms large.
The ominous structure is a physical reminder of the immigration policies of Donald Trump – the former President, now presidential hopeful.
Arizona is the only swing state to share a border with Mexico, and there are strong feelings over Trump’s suggestions of “mass arrests” for those who are suspected to be undocumented migrants. Arizonans have already lived through something akin to this under Senate Bill 1070 “show me your papers” regime introduced in 2010.
Many Latinos will not want to see a return to the aggressive enforcement of policies aimed at reducing the size of the undocumented immigrant population. But Trump seems to be counting on some Latinos turning on their neighbours.
As one of the fastest growing communities, Latinos now account for more than 36 million eligible voters across the United States. Come election day, some are predicting as many as 25 percent of those who vote will come from this community.
The speed at which the community is growing, and the historically high levels of young Latino mobilisation, have seen both the Republican and Democratic campaigns courting this group of voters.
The Latino vote becomes even more crucial in swing states with a high Latino population – like Arizona and Pennsylvania.
Latino people make up about 34 percent of the eligible voters in Arizona, and 19 percent of registered voters this election.
At Rancho Ochoa, there are two dominant issues: immigration and reproductive rights (the right to access abortion).
Latinas (Latino women) – many young – spill through the gates; stetsons on their heads, boots on their feet, iPhones in their hands.
They make up a new generation of voters within a community that skews younger than the general population, is likely to vote, and is mobilising at the highest levels on record.
Elizabeth Diaz is a first-generation American, as well as a political science major at Arizona State University. Like so many others like her in Latino communities across the country, she’s become increasingly engaged in civics and has encouraged those around her to register to vote.
Broadly, Diaz says her policies and values align with those of Harris, but when asked to single out a specific issue, she immediately names reproductive rights.
“In terms of abortion, something that I really want to protect, not just for myself, but for any women that should have those rights for their own body.”
Arizona is one of 10 states with abortion on the ballot in the 2024 presidential election. 
‘Proposition 139’ asks voters whether they want to make access to abortion a right, up to the point of viability as determined by a medical professional – as well as beyond viability in the case of certain circumstances like the physical and mental health of the pregnant person.
While the media have often reported that Latino communities don’t support the right to access abortion due to religion – often Catholicism, that’s not borne out in comments made by those at Friday night’s rodeo.
Of course, appealing to any diverse community is complex, and the same is true for the Latino community.
While Latinos have become one of the most crucial voter groups this election – especially in swing states – the community is not monolithic.
Mexicans, Cubans and Puerto Ricans, young and old, women and men, have different experiences and vote differently.
For instance: Republicans say Trump’s immigration policies (including mass arrests) appeal to American citizens from the Latino community: they followed the proper process, everyone else should have to as well, Trump supporters – like Maricopa County legislative district chair Lisa Everett – say.
But those working to mobilise and educate Latino voters say that’s not what they’re hearing. Those who’ve managed to gain citizenship want the same for others looking to build a better life in the United States.
Both may be true.
Meanwhile, Latinos who do vote Republican are more likely to hold less vehement beliefs on key issues, like guns and immigration, according to the Pew Research Center.
These complexities might seem daunting to a campaign team, but the Latino vote is too big to lose. 
While Latino voters are still more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate, Trump has been trying to build on his gains from 2020.
Then THAT joke at Trump’s controversial New York rally threw everything into question
When pro-Trump comedian Tony Hinchcliffe called the American territory of Puerto Rico “a floating island of garbage” during the Madison Square Garden rally, the world stood up and took notice of how this might affect the election outcome.
If anyone need proof of the importance of the Latino vote, Trump – known for doubling down on his brash comments – immediately distanced himself from both the comments and the comedian.
No doubt, he and his team immediately cringed at the potential damage done in Pennsylvania – the swing state, which is home to almost 500,000 Puerto Ricans.
Two days later, during an address in the crucial Pennsylvania county of Allentown, Trump attempted to overcome the comments.
“I’m so proud that we’re getting support from Latinos like never before,” he said. “We’re setting every record. Hispanics, Latinos — nobody loves our Latino community and our Puerto Rican community more than I do.”
For many, the “garbage” comment was their “October surprise” and has engaged Puerto Ricans – and Latinos generally – at the eleventh hour.
Harris and her team have been attempting to make hay in the aftermath of the remarks, releasing a policy aimed at Latino men and economic stability, courting further Latino celebrity endorsements, and shouting “Sí, se puede!” (Yes, we can!) every chance she gets.
But perhaps Harris’ biggest coup off the back of Trump’s New York rally faux pas is securing the public support of popstar Jennifer Lopez.
In an event in Las Vegas, just four days out from election day, J-Lo said the comments had offended “every Latino in this country”.
“At Madison Square Garden, he reminded us who he really is and how he really feels,” Lopez said of Trump. “It wasn’t just Puerto Ricans who were offended that day, OK? It was every Latino in this country, it was humanity and anyone of decent character.”
Monica Sandscafer – head of the Arizona state division for non-profit Latino voter education organisation Mi Familia Vota – says it’s unsurprising people have reacted to the comedian’s comments. Her community doesn’t like being called garbage.
But it’s not just these comments that have driven Latinos to register and head to the polls.
Since May, the organisation has knocked on 500,000 doors, sent 500,000 text messages and made 500,000 phone calls in an attempt to mobilise Latino and other minority communities.
Like many, the community worker says she wouldn’t under-estimate the power of the Latino vote. And she’s predicting that support will swing in behind Harris, based on the 2022 midterms and their organisation’s surveys.
Cost of living is a key issues for Latino voters, she says, but abortion is the standout issue driving people to the polls this year.
Sandschafer cites a survey that found 75 percent support for access to abortion among Latino voters – higher than among white people.
“They may personally be opposed to abortion, may personally never, ever make that choice, find it distasteful, find it immoral, but their belief is that it shouldn’t be a government decision, that it should be a medical decision and a personal decision.”
She also names the aggressive deportation policies as something driving Latinos to the polls.
“I think there’s a lot to fear,” she says. But “folks won’t go quietly, or give in easily”, she says.
Elizabeth Diaz – the political science major – has dragged along her boyfriend Alex Perez to the Democratic campaign event at the Phoenix rodeo.
Diaz is comfortable engaging in political discussion, and understands the importance of voter education – especially among the all-important Latino community.
She says the shift in demographics among politicians, with more Latinos being voted into office, helps encourage more young Latinos to vote – it’s one of those chicken-egg situations.
Meanwhile, Perez – like so many others – is taking his first steps into civic engagement during an historic time in US politics.
He knows in his gut how he feels about the candidates, and particularly about Trump’s immigration policies. And that’s enough.